Now I'll turn it over to the HooD
H-T: Most interesting. Some developing thoughts that H-T may agree with. H-T is always thinking. As this process goes forth, it may be tough for RW to gain the traction of before. The players and issues have changed dramatically. Although RW is certainly an inoffensive nice guy candidate, he ANNEXED the 'BURBS. Much resentment. He also does not have the luxury of having TG one-on-one like before. As a former mayor , he also actually carries the broad "anti-incumbency" taint "of being in office or having been in office". He has his own "anti" problems. The whole "part of the problem" thing. TG, RW, MM, and KV also must all carry that burden! RW must try to continue the "anti-TG" mantra that both he and MM have loudly espoused:"I'm not Tom." He will try to tell what he will now do differently from before to try to break out of the pack. Tough to do with the configuration of the race and the change in demographics of the voters.
Both RW and KV do get a slight percentage increase with MM jumping, but it won't be enough. After the twist of "party jumping" by MM, MM won't get to actually benefit from the three years of attacking TG !!! Ironic or poetic? Strange how that plan didn't work out after all that sustained effort. I had RW at 13% with MM in the race. Now, early on, it looks like maybe 20%, with an early potential high in the range 25%. He is actually now just a version of "TOM LIGHT". He will run a very intelligent race, but there just aren't enough votes to go around and he isn't now the best alternative. He could possibly edge out TG for second if Tom crumbles or fades. KV also dogs both of them demographically. ( As H-T points out, KV does have a nice slogan!) It is tough for either TG or RW to get above the "one vote out of four level" (25%) with the heightened interest drawn by the field of candidates. If we allow 25% each for TG and RW and possibly (a stretch) 10% for KV as their "base vote", it is very difficult for any of them to now build on that and "break out". MM faced that problem. He already had an approximate ceiling. He had a base but was no longer the only anti-TG candidate. The same problem of not enough votes to around. Too risky. Those darn "pesky" voters like choices. RW certainly doesn't have a base of 1/3rd of the vote in this primary. Tom "might" have had a 1/3 vote base against just MM and RW, but that will be tough to hold now. Too many new variables and choices. in reality, Tom is more popular than the "power brokers" think, and could actually take votes from RW and KV, if his campaign issues and achievements gain traction of their own. An early poll is to be out in two weeks or so. I think that a poll taken after 30-45 days of TBP campaigning will shock. Momentum change could be significant.
The unknown, as H-T wisely points out , is from TBP and that could be a complete game changer in the election dynamics for the entire year. Essentially, TG, RW, and KV must draw from the same well. Both MM and KV have to answer for some of the financial woes of the extreme mismanagement of Clark County government. Both MM and KV have excuses, but there is still a statistical segment of the public that won't buy it. It was broken on their watch. That moves some votes away from them and adds to the mix.
