Breaking on the Bat-Blog! The numbers from the latest poll. (Don't tell the CCC!) KV 8%, RW 25%, TG 26%, TBP 32%,undecided 9%. The poll sampled "likely voters" not just a random group. The poll was two step with another question asked "That if you haven't made a hard decision made yet, whom would you possibly be learning towards?" That moves some votes and also accounts for the undecided precentage that still haven't made a final decision at this time. Seven weeks until the primary. The questions about a three party race for the fall were very interesting. The "party switching thing" has some real statistical vote "holding"problems. One political camp in particular won't be too happy. Draino!
HT sees some possible problems with the results of Draino's Poll. HT doesn't question TP's ability to pull 32 % of the voters or any of the numbers although KV's 8% seems rather high, (but then there are a lot of Vissings in Jeff.)
The problem I see and this is a real concern in the election as well. How many MM supporters will vote in the Democratic primary ?? And How will they vote ?? Will they vote for the strongest or weakest candidate ?? By MM supporters voting for what they perceive as the weakest candidate, this could possibly make his election in the fall easier, at least in theory...
This is a problem when runoff elections are not used in primaries. Runoff elections narrow the field to the top two vote getters and then another election is held with only the top two vote getters participating. This eliminates results being skewed by large fields, and would probably be appropriate in this election but unfortunately won't be used.
HT doesn't question Draino's numbers but wonders in what context and how they should be perceived. HT feels no matter what ,MM will be a strong candidate this Fall .Non withstanding the EN's poll, MM is a popular and proven vote getter with strong issues in his favor.
HT feels it's Mike Moore's election at this point in time no matter who the Dem. candidate is.
A bigger question is (HT has been told) are Goliath, TG, Honest Mike, and young Matt Chinn on spring break together in Cancun ????
We need H-T's SPECIALTY! Photos of the boys partying on Spring break in Cancun! The rumor is......Peggy IS going with them! Draino!
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ReplyDeleteOnce again, H-T is VERY perceptive. 'Ol Draino! hasn't brought us at the journalism school all of the results yet for the questions asked about the fall. But apparently the poll questions and sample method were very thorough. I will try to get them. Others are talking about them. MM is strong, but he can't dictate a large disciplined vote for/aginst another mayoral candidate. People will vote for whom they want. Always have. He might dictate maybe 150-200, but that would be high. People have other candidates, as an example for the council, and different concerns.The poll asked some very detailed questions about the three candidate race for the fall. Almost all of the experienced observers feel there will be a Concervative Third Party candidate. Questions were asked. There are issues with the "switch over', rivalrys, and some other things. The third party candidate, if it is a good one, really changes the dynamics of the race. I am told that Bob Isgrigg polled remarkably well against MM in the sample with voters identifying themselves as conservative or conservative leaning. Draino! is getting pretty good at hitting the listening posts around Jeff. He may be the next Pesty.
ReplyDeleteYou know, H-T, I thought about that poll result of 8% for Kevin in '11 also. He does know a lot of people. It could be that is is just an early response to name recognition of names read from a list. The shake out could be less, but it is really difficult for him to get less than the 5% range. What do you think the total number of voters will be in each of the Democrat and Republican primaries? Separate totals?
ReplyDeleteGoliath's very thoughful and well written journalism piece on the mayor's race was attempted to be shared with the READERS of the CCC. Goliath has posted that HE has no objection to its usage. However, he has personally taken an Oath of Honor, sworn on his sword, that HE will NOT post there himself for obvious reasons. The term "fearing Golaith" isn't the same as the fear of bodily harm engendered when Pesty was threatend. The really nice, introspective and entertaining writing by Golaith was to be enjoyed. The "fear" is the type of fear of freedom of speech and expression when someone supresses another's thoughtful and entertaining writing. Why would the "new" CCC do that? Why are they that mean? What are they afraid of? I am not the "I Love Jeffersonville" poster, but I can sympathize with them as they have privately stated they have had their posts TAKEN DOWN that included Golaith's sage words, been subjected to childish warnings, and abused by being banned and having their threads locked. I'd say that the more people that can read freely the wisdom of a 3,000 year old giant that has had his head cut off and then restored by a witch, and who lives with several fiesty and strong wimmens and many chickens, is a noted scavenger and poet-warrior, who is an expert in the various types of distilled spirits, is someone we should learn from whenever possible! To the CCC: very bad form! Bad CCC. Shame on your egos! Draino!
ReplyDeleteWho told you about our spring break plans!
ReplyDeleteJust like your rigged award, this is an outrage.
p.s. I'm revealing a bombshell on your blog in the next few days. Abbysnanna is next.
Do you know Franklin?
-YMC
Someone named "BendAroundSome" posted in part on the CCC about the IU poll: "As far as I am concerned this present information has no validity of factual bases (Sp?) beyond the address of 501 E. Court Avenue.... and "I guess this, The Data of the Poll could not make it past "THE SECURITY GATE" on the First Floor Of The Courthouse!" Draino!
ReplyDeleteHuh? Uh, dude, this is a CITY ELECTION. The COUNTY Government Center and the "First Floor of the Courthouse" are located at 501 E. Court Avenue. The Jeffersonville City Hall MOVED several YEARS ago to the Quadrangle on 10th Street. You are disparaging the WRONG location of politician persons! Additionally, there are both Republicans and Democrats haunting the county location as well. I am told that the poll wasn't initiated by or paid for by political candidates or office holders. DRAINO!
ReplyDeleteYMC = Young Matt Chill? =)
ReplyDeleteJust waiting on Franklin. And wondering ... is it ole Benny Franklin? Are you offering a bribe?
Guess I'll just have to stay tunned to the batblog to find out!
Nope.
ReplyDeleteEven better.
Stay tuned...