Election 2011- Updated Analysis
As we head into the last month and a half of the 2011 primary race HT will give his analysis on how the races are shaping up so far. In the Democratic mayoral race it looks like a tight race developing between TG the incumbent and Rob Waiz former mayor (2004 -2008) and newcomer Teresa Perkins. The question is can TG overcome the negativity created by higher taxes, higher sewer bills, annexation and Vissing Park.
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| TG counting on split vote |
Waiz a polished politician at this time looks like the best bet to defeat Galligan. He has the name recognition, core supporters and likability associated with a winning campaign and should get a lot of support from the annexed and disgruntled voters. He also ran a close race with TG in the mayoral primary four years ago.
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| Waiz front runner ?? |
While HT likes the things Teresa Perkins brings to the table, her leadership experience, education , background and being a political newcomer. HT wonders if her message is getting out to the rank in file voters, which is difficult for first time candidates to do.
Kevin Vissing well he does have a catchy slogan (Kevin in 11). He seems to agree with TG on everything, which makes you wonder if he was just a plant by the Galligan campaign to split the anti- Galligan vote. KV has no chance of winning this election.
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| Perkins needs to get her message out. |
RECAP: Galligan benefits from the four person field, the anti- Galligan votes will be split and votes for Perkins and Vissing will definitely hurt Waiz. This split of votes could help Galligan overcome the negative issues he is facing.
HT would hope the non-traditional candidate Perkins can get her message out, he likes that she hasn't been tainted by the political machine and could bring experienced non political leadership to the Mayor's office. Kevin Vissing " catchy slogan" and don't quit your day job.
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| Catchy slogan |
At this point though it's too close to call, but a slight edge to Rob Waiz. Things can change though in the final six weeks.
H-T: Cool analysis. We are all reminded of your VERY acurate predictions for the fall of 2010, humbling the 'Hood and many others. TG is a hard workering mayor. However, the combined concrete-blocks-around-the-neck things of higher taxes, higher sewer bills, annexation, the constant sliming by "rabid self-interest opposition political camps" and too many times to the well, are killing TG. The "tax thing" is getting ready to explode.
ReplyDeleteThe Vissing Park hysteria didn't go very far with the public at large, they could care less. Tracking shows it is also not on the radar as a negative with the all important "core voters" at all. It hasn't polled as a significant city wide concern. The concept of moving the softball fields from Playsquare Park to Vissing Park, assisitng major downtown econonmic development, has been well received. The urban park "concept plan" to create for the dramatically improved/revitalized "mutliple use" of Vissing Park has also been well received with the general public. The concern for the neglected condition of the park, prior to the new ideas for the increased family usage of the park, was never very widespread. The negativity against the changes has just been generally attempted to be promoted by those with special interests against the administration. There is much widespread support for the overall improvements and their benefits.
ReplyDeleteHoosier Taxpayer very astutely wrote: "While HT likes the things Teresa Perkins brings to the table, her leadership experience, education , background and being a political newcomer. HT wonders if her message is getting out to the rank in file voters, which is difficult for first time candidates to do." H-T has certainly hit the core question/challenge for TBP. Also, with MM jumping ship at the last moment, the opportunity changed the dynamics of the race significantly. It really opened up the race.
ReplyDeletePolitical sources are reporting that Teresa Bottorff Perkins is meeting the challenges that H-T has wisely outlined. The sources say that the necessary tasks are being completed and the reponse is excellent. A lot of behind the scenes campaigning that is very effective. The camps of both TG and MM know what she must do and they are hearing the footsteps. They are concerned. The question is, as H-T correctly stated, is there enough time to sufficently get the message out? The clock is ticking.
ReplyDeleteH-T: Breaking news on the Award winning Bat-Blog! These poll results are not going to make a certain political camp very happy with the leak, but you know how everybody likes to talk. There are no secrets in politics! Just as H-T accurately reported at the start of the race, TBP has intriguing possibilites. How well she caught on would quite possibly decide the race. The last "tracking poll" completed Friday shows movement toward TBP.
ReplyDeleteThe latest poll (and it is for real) shows TG still in the lead. The problem is that TG has much less of the total percentage of the vote than they want. RW is a good viable "other than TOM candidate", but he is hampered by three elements. First, he is the "current anti-Tom alternatve" candidate and is trying to re-cast himself as favoring less government. Secondly, Kevin in '11 is killing RW's demographics and as Kevin in '11 begins more "marketing", he actually pulls more votes from RW. Thirdly, RW has the Big Sin of annexation hanging over his head and is no longer the new kid on the block or the fresh alternative. Big Tax bills are coming to a mailbox near you soon!
ReplyDeleteThe election is 48 days from today. The voters don't follow it day-to-day or hour-to-hour like the political power brokers and wannabes. H-T and the Award Winning Bat-Blog have a very good insight on voter trends. Many voters have favorites and may "trend" or lean toward another candidate as information is marketed and the election day grows nearer. TG is about at his peak and RW doesn't really have anywhere to gather new votes. KV dogs RW's numbers as an "other than Tom" alternative. Both TG and RW get more votes than last time in raw numbers because of annexation, but the percentages are tough on them. They really can't add to their current percentage totals significantly. The voters are hungry for change and the first time city election voters REALLY want it. Trageted voter marketing analysis technique has identified a very large "likely voter" demographic that is AGAINST anyone who has held or does hold office.
ReplyDeleteAll interesting points Hood, I have some concerns about TP's relationship to John brought up on the CCC. Though she put JP packing is their a political relationship there ?? If not she needs to put these rumors to rest immediately. any relationship would be disastrous to her campaign...
ReplyDeleteHood, the soon to arrive tax bills could be the last nail in TG's coffin. How bad will they be ??? That's the question.I'm sure he would wish they were delayed(as they normally are) until after the election. You're right anti incumbency is in the vogue both nationally and locally....
ReplyDeleteH-T: Great insight as usual. Sources say that the divorce was not that amicable and that TBP has to "provide" financially (very significantly) for JP. That did not go well with TBP to say the least. ALL women in Jeff know what that means about an ex. A "core voter" category (3 of the last 3 elections) for the entire city is 54% female! Another demographic that will influence the turnout this year is the fact that there are ELEVEN women on the ballot this spring! That would suggest a pre-planned "targeted voter marketing opportunity" if needed. An attept to exploit that isue would bckfire rapidly. He has had TWO come-to-Jesus lectures from her already about this campaign. Real dust ups. Although JP has politics in his DNA and can support whom he wishes, insiders say he will not be involved with her campaign. He will still try daily, of course, since it is JP. He has been told to just go catfishing on the Ohio In Bethlehem where he lives and get over it! The process has also involved the knowlege that the only thing that can be used against Teresa is her former marriage status. Teresa is very intelligent and she knows that as she really begins to get traction, "they" will play the "JP card". There is a plan and if it has to be used, the response will trump any attempted gain from the dirty trick. She knows and is ready. Actually, if the JP thing is played strongly enough, it will backfire and work to her advantage. ALL of the other candidates have very serious issue/personal baggage compared to Teresa having dumped 'ol JP.
ReplyDeleteH-T: Yes, H-T, the tax bills are going to be devistating! You are right, there are a lot of nails in those! TG has very good mailings going out that say "I didnt annex you, RW DID IT! RW is a good guy. He will squeal, but it "happened on his watch" and he has kept very quiet about it until he decided to run again. He has been "reborn" on taxes! It won't do either of them any good. MANY OF THE TAX BILLS FOR THE ANNEXED AREAS ARE PREDICTED TO DOUBLE. Anger is coming and TG and RW have probably peaked. KV, CM, and MM are Big Parts of the mismanaged Clark County government that has had its credit rating dropped, is effectively BANKRUPT, and is in debt. Clark County government overspent its CERTIFIED BUDGETS for four years! The state board of Accounts Audits will be red meat for the voters this fall. An interestimg development is the growing movement for the fall candidacy of Bob Isgrigg on a Conservative Third Party ticket. RW has been trying to get The Tea Party to endorce him this Spring, but many in that movement aren't buying it. It would hurt their credibility. Bob Isgrigg is too strong with the Tea Party and has the Libertarian nomination sewn up.
ReplyDeleteH-T: BINGO! Very good move! I just read the CCC!!! ...heh..heh..heh... You posted "the bait" at 11:39 AM today and "they" first took it at 11:43 AM. Someone with the handle "Debbie" very quickly first provided "exposure content". You drew them out smoothly. Nice repartee bt H-T! They are what we call "Hungry fish!" "Professor02" and "kelley" each wrote a book!That was good journalism by H-T and very good "reverse engineering of opposition research". Mining. Well payed, sir! I think that TBP is now analyzing the data.
ReplyDeleteHT: Dude, you have really spun their feeble brains at the CCC! They are still racked! Whatever that "Professor 02" person is smoking, try to get some of that ****! Wow! L.O.L. I can't believe they were that pent up. HT, my compliments also on a job well done! Excellent! Remember, 'TOONS RULE! Heh...heh...heh... Draino!
ReplyDeleteHT the analysis and political commentary on GAW is far more awesome. Even if you did win the Goliath Award for Best Innernet site,
ReplyDeleteHowever, Goliath amazed at the CCC posting and thinks THIS IS why BATBLOG deserves awesome credit.
Draino! here reporting in and to the award winning batblog!
ReplyDeleteI understand that it was revealed at the meeting last Tuesday that the allegedly damaged "stream" isn't one at all !! It is only a "wet weather run off ditch" that will remain in the same place. Even now it still drains through a non cleared area on the property that contains any silt on the 47 acre site. The Land Planning Architect cleared this up at the meeting. The ditch and wet weather only "riperian" drainage area will be very properly maintained as part of the growth of the site usage. These facts have often been ommited by some. He also discussed the many improvements at the "urban infill project" and the significant increased family enjoyment that will come out of the changes.
'ol Draino! reporting in again (!) to the award winning batblog! Someone with the name "Jules" has posted on the CCC, a very good, intelligent, and well thought out interpretation of the improvememts and increased family usage planned for Vissing Park. I think this by far is the majority feeling about the development plan....."Jules: wrote: "Since last week I expressed the opinion that I thought the new plans looked nice and that I thought the park would be better utilized I thought it might be a good idea if I drove back there to see exactly what you guys were talking about...Especially since I had not seen the park since it was cleared...So after my school run this morning, I drove back there for a look.
ReplyDeleteI was ready to see a "bald" piece of ground too, ( and to admit that perhaps it had been over-kill, but let's move on and make the best of it)...But sheeeesh, it was not what I was prepared to see...I can't tell it's hardly been cleared out at all!!...Tidied up perhaps, but nothing like the impressions I was getting after reading this thread for months.
Are you talking about the area behind the shelter house??...Yes that's been cleared, ( if memory serves I think there were trees back there), but it looks 100% better...And there are still plenty of trees to the left of the shelter area...Perhaps thinned out a bit, but not much...( And not enough that I'd feel comfortable back there by myself yet).
I'm sorry but I don't see the reason for all the outrage and I'm even more convinced now that it was a good decision and that in 5yrs time, ( or whatever the time frame is on development), it will prove to have been the thing to do and will serve much more of the area population than it ever did before...Yes, parks need wooded area's, ( and in my opinion Vissing still has plenty of that), but they need open fielded area's as well.
I think I feel more mislead by the postings on this subject than by anything else I've ever read on here...And I don't mean purposely mislead, but are we even looking at the same park??
All the time and effort that's gone into complaining about the park by so many seems a bit askew to me given all the other issues this city faces...At least as represented on the CCC." "Jules"
Draino! also found this by "Jules" on the CCC. I'm reporting it for you here on the batblog. She is very thorough and entertaining! Jules stated: "And I don't doubt that either...And can understand as well...Where we lived previously had a woody wetlands area that backed up to our backyard when we bought the home...10yrs later it was bulldozed and developed...( This is the street that was connected to Plaza Dr. off 8th)...At first I was bothered that we'd have houses behind us instead of the privacy we were use to...And once they started clearing out we had a fall/winter full of having to set mice-traps that we'd never had to do before, but I got over it...However, a lot of the neighbors were upset and try to use the wetlands designation to stop it...But, to me the "wetlands" were more of a mosquito over-run swamp.
ReplyDeleteAnd I wouldn't say I'm not comfortable in a wooded environment...True, I'd rather slit my wrists than camp. But I can cope for a few hour outside, LOL, and we enjoy Cherokee and Seneca Park in Louisville...Community Park in NA...And the state park in Charlestown, which is just up the road, and much more rugged (?) and untouched than Vissing Park ever was.
Also I think the state of neglect that park has been in for years was more of slam to Mayor Vissing than what it looks like now, and will look like in the future...I could never figure out why the one park in the city named after our most prolific mayor was never tended better.
( The dog park ideally could/should be bigger Cindi...I agree with that).
Jules
H-T: I found this exchange about county government going bankrupt on the news-tribune.com on-line site:“Obviously, there was a mistake made back then that’s impacting everybody greatly,” said Ed Meyer, president of the Clark County Commissioners. “If this appeal fails, then basically what we’re saying is we’re going bankrupt?” he asked.
ReplyDelete“We’ve got $12 million,” said Councilman Chuck Moore. “I don’t see how we’re bankrupt ... everyone has to make cuts.”
Meyer then responded by asking Moore if he thinks the county can run on the certified amount.
“Our feeling is we have to run on $12 million right now,” Moore said.
The county is hoping for, but not counting on additional funding from rainy-day and riverboat funds and Economic Development Income Tax to boost operations later in the year.
“We’re jumping off the building and hoping we grow some wings,” said Council President Kevin Vissing.
Yep, HT, you have to hand it to Kevin in '11, he does understand the situation that county government is in! “We’re jumping off the building and hoping we grow some wings,” said Council President Kevin Vissing. At least one member of county govenment knows they have spent far too much money and I will say most of it was before Kevin was on the council.
ReplyDeleteDraino!
H-T: I see also that NSBHM has been "called out" by councilman2 (Ed Z) on the CCC for misinformation about his record! On the CCC, NSBHM stated: "Ed, someone has a short memory. You did vote against paying a claim or two for the roadway, but it was a 6-1 or 5-2 vote. I don't ever remember it being less than a 5-2 vote. A claim may have been pulled at one meeting but was added back at the next meeting. There have been some claims come through in the last few months payable to San Tech (sp) but I believe you voted for them too.
ReplyDeleteI only remember you voting twice against paying claims for the GH, and I don't remember any claims not being paid. You stood up for the people for a short while until one of the attorneys told you everything was done legal, correct?
Also, there is a big difference in speaking out against a claim or two and working hard to stop a project or get an asphalt plant to move."
On the CCC, Ed Z corrected NSBHM: "Mike that is absolutely not true(although you are not super I thought you were honest?). I voted against the Galligan Road every time and fought against it from day one. Look up the claims sheets over the years or ask anyone on the council. If you don't believe me, if you don't believe any council members and you don't believe the official minutes of various meetings then maybe you will trust Kelley Curran when she wrote about this road. Here is a quote and her comments about my actions in her article regarding the Galligan Road...
" I do not understand why this road is needed or is such a high priority, since Dutch lane is very near this road and already connects 10th Street and Hamburg Pike,” said City Councilman Ed Zastawny, who has consistently voted against the road. “I know this new road would be wider, but I just don’t see the benefit..."
http://newsandtribun...oad-less-wanted
Draino!
Ouch!
ReplyDeleteI just complimented Goliath on his most recent political commentary and I have to extend the same to you HT!!...( And the HHIAP).
ReplyDeleteCouple of thoughts...I agree that Vissing Park isn't the issue with the general public that you'd think it is after reading the CCC.
I wonder how much TG and RW will split the Catholic vote??
I think TBP is certainly viable, but she's female and as non PC as it is to say, I'm not sure Jeff voters will go for that in the end...( I'm not saying I don't go for it)...But, I think there are more people that may not vote for her because she's 1. Not overly well-known. 2. Her relationship with JP. 3. And the last reason they need to not vote for her is she's a woman...More perhaps than will vote for her because she is a woman...And another thing to keep in mind...Women can be very hard on other women...I'm not saying any of those reasons are right, but I think they'll all be factors.
KV...I'm not exactly sure what to say about KV...?????
If I were going to call it right now, I'd go with TG...But a whole lot can happen between now and May 2...And if taxes do explode that could have a definite impact.
And there you have it from a total amateur who's probably talking out her ass tonight about local politics. :)
Jules
HSBHM's Dance Shuffle routine! A new thread on the CCC exposes some hypocrisy! MC asks: "This is how you do the Not Super But Honest Mike Dance."
ReplyDelete"It's easy, you just make a whole bunch of statements that contradict each other." MC goes on to say that the NSNHBM professes to "support the man", not the "party", and then directs the readers to vote for a certain party!" Hmmm. Draino!
Just in! Breaking on the Award Winning Bat-Blog! The next poll with more last minute sampling added is back. It is showing movement from the prior one ten days ago away from both TG and RW. The fear is starting to develop as the camps get feedback from TBP's campaigning. They must now try to play dirty tricks to try to stop her. That is why the attempts to attack TBP have begun. H-T cleverly smoked them out! Draino!
ReplyDeleteIs NSNHBM now in control of the CCC as Moderator? I thought that because of his bias, he could not be a mod now on th new CCC? Draino!
ReplyDelete